Search
  • John Caserta

Should investors be concerned about the Super Bowl Indicator?

(WTNH) - The "Super Bowl Indicator" claims that a win by a team from the AFC signals a bear market, while a win by an NFC team (as well as teams from the original NFL before the merger of the AFL and NFL in 1968) indicates a bull market. Financial Consultant John Caserta answers our questions about the theory.



Where did this theory come from?

* This theory was first introduced in 1978 by Leonard Koppett, a sportswriter for the New York Time.

How accurate is the Super Bowl Indicator?

* According to sources, the Super Bowl Indicator was at one point more than 90% accurate in predicting the performance of the S&P 500 in the following year. But there is a major dispute in the data - the theory includes the Pittsburgh Steelers (who have won the most Super Bowls) as an NFC team (where they started) even though the won as an AFC team.

* And in the past 10 years, the Super Bowl Indicator has been about as accurate as a coin-toss. Most recently, the Broncos and Patriots didn’t predict a down market, and the Eagles win didn’t signal a bull market.

* This theory is more fun than it is serious investment advice or theory. It’s a football game and should not be driving decisions in your portfolio.

So what should investors do?

* The Super Bowl Indicator raises a good point – correlation is not causation. A football game will not determine the performance of the market. And using such info to predict market performance – and worse, make investment decisions – can be problematic.

* It’s important to consider your goals and your appetite for risk – that will help determine how to position your portfolio in a manner that is appropriate for you.

0 views0 comments

Recent Posts

See All

Our Knowledge.

Your Vision.

TM

Caserta & de Jongh, LLC
Company
Who We Are
Contact Us
Privacy Policy
Contact
Office: (203) 272-9111

Fax: (475) 655-2781

 

12 Elm Street

North Haven, CT 06473

info@caserta-dejongh.com

What our lawyers want us to say:

Securities and investment advisory services offered through Hornor, Townsend & Kent, LLC (HTK), Registered Investment Adviser, Member FINRA/SIPC. 187 Danbury Road, 2nd Floor, Wilton, CT 06897  (203) 966-2636. HTK is a wholly-owned subsidiary of The Penn Mutual Life Insurance Company.  Caserta & de Jongh, LLC is independent of HTK, LLC. HTK does not provide legal and tax advice. Always consult a qualified tax advisor regarding your personal tax situation and a qualified legal professional for your personal estate planning situation. 

Check the background of your financial professional on FINRA's BrokerCheck.

Investment advisory and financial planning services are provided by John Caserta, HTK Investment Adviser Representative. Our representatives are insurance and securities licensed in our home state of CT, as well as additional states.  For more information, please contact our office.  This is not an offer or solicitation in any state where not properly licensed.

2927872RB_Feb23