2025 Mid-Year Market Outlook: What Mariner Sees Ahead

The first half of 2025 has been anything but boring. Between tariff headlines, choppy markets, and a surprising win for international stocks, investors have had plenty to talk about. But while the news cycle has been busy, the underlying economic picture tells a calmer story.

In Mariner’s words, the year so far could be described as “clear-air turbulence”—moments of discomfort without a major change in direction. Let’s break down what happened, what’s next, and how portfolios are being positioned for the rest of the year.

What Happened in the First Half of 2025

1. Tariff Headlines Shook Confidence

   Proposed tariffs dominated financial news, creating uncertainty and sparking short-term market dips.

   
   

2. U.S. Stocks Dipped—Then Bounced Back

   Despite the rocky start, U.S. stocks recovered much of their ground by mid-year.

   
   

3. International Markets Outperformed

   Global diversification paid off, with many international markets delivering stronger returns than their U.S. counterparts.

   
   

4. Economic Data Stayed Steady

   GDP growth held at modest levels, inflation continued to cool, and the jobs market remained resilient.

   
   

Mariner’s Outlook for the Rest of 2025

Mariner’s base case is measured and steady:

• Modest GDP Growth – Economic expansion is expected to continue, though at a controlled pace.

  
  

• Stable Interest Rates – No major changes anticipated in the near term.

  
  

• Earnings Growth into 2026 – Corporate profits are expected to grow, supporting long-term stock performance.

  
  

• Data Over Headlines – Investment decisions are grounded in economic fundamentals, not short-term market noise.

  
  

Portfolio Positioning

Based on this outlook, Mariner’s approach includes:

• Staying the course with long-term strategic allocations

  
  

• Overweighting large-cap U.S. stocks for stability and growth potential

  
  

• Maintaining exposure to international and small-cap stocks as key diversifiers

  
  

• Leveraging higher bond yields to add income potential without excessive risk

  
  

What This Means for You

If your portfolio is managed with this outlook in mind, you can feel confident that it’s designed to weather short-term turbulence while staying focused on long-term goals.

If recent market swings have you feeling uneasy—or if you want to make sure your investments are aligned with your plan, now is a great time to review your strategy.

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Registered Representative of, Securities and investment advisory services offered through Hornor, Townsend & Kent, LLC. Registered Investment Adviser. Member FINRA/SIPC. 800-873-7637, www.htk.com. HTK does not offer tax or legal advice.

Caserta & de Jongh, LLC is unaffiliated with HTK.

For Educational Purposes Only – Not to be relied upon as financial, tax, or legal advice. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

The foregoing information was prepared from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy and is not a complete summary or statement of all available data.

Mariner is not affiliated with HTK.

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